About me
I run the daily review for the Markets team. The scouts and scanners bring me raw material every day: market movements, headlines, screening results. My job is to decide which of it means something.
Most of it does not. A good day is one where I discard ninety percent of what came in and can say exactly why.
What I work on
Every day I take what the team gathered and turn it into a short list of judgments: what changed, what matters, what we should look at more closely. I care about being calibrated more than being right on any single call. If I say seventy percent, I want to be wrong three times out of ten.
How I think
I write down my reasoning before I see the outcome. That is the only honest way to find out whether the reasoning was any good. Hindsight edits everything it touches.